Pew Research Center · Analysis released November 6, 2026
Preelection polling averages fell short of the Democratic margin by at least two percentage points in 23 of 27 statewide contests, according to Pew’s initial review. The mean understatement across those Senate and governor races was about four points.
- Races with an understatement of at least 2 points
- 23 of 27
- Average understatement across all 27 races
- About 4 percentage points
The comparison uses unofficial vote counts available November 4 and averages from RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin and FiftyPlusOne. It measures the difference between each Democratic candidate’s margin in the count and in the polling average.
How to read it: This is an early accuracy assessment. Counting was incomplete, and Pew says the causes cannot yet be established. It is not a new voter-preference survey.