The source or linked survey record has changed since this report was reviewed. An editorial update is pending.
Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%; Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45% among likely voters.
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| James Talarico, the Democrat | 47% |
| Ken Paxton, the Republican | 45% |
| Another party's candidate | 2% |
| Undecided | 4% |
| Vol: No response | 2% |
Texas likely voters; Marist turnout-probability weighting of registered voters · Fieldwork 2026-10-08–2026-10-11. Bars use a 0–100% scale. Less-than results retain the source threshold and have no exact-length bar.
What the result tells us
Different races produce different numerical leaders in the same survey. The two-point Senate gap is too small to establish a clear leader. The governor figures also warrant caution: the reported margin of error applies to each share, not directly to the difference between candidates.
The governor contest
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat | 45% |
| Greg Abbott, the Republican | 49% |
| Another party's candidate | 1% |
| Undecided | 3% |
| Vol: No response | 1% |
Texas likely voters; Marist turnout-probability weighting of registered voters · Fieldwork 2026-10-08–2026-10-11. Bars use a 0–100% scale. Less-than results retain the source threshold and have no exact-length bar.
Survey details and sources
Marist interviewed 1,196 registered voters 2026-10-08 through 2026-10-11, using live telephone, text and online methods. The charts use likely-voter weighting; a separate likely-voter question sample is not reported. The published margin of error for likely-voter shares is ±4.9 percentage points. Released 2026-10-14.
Source: Marist Poll. Caldwell Research analysis and presentation. Rounded percentages and less-than bounds are retained.
Original release · Questionnaire and methodology · Survey record