Turek draws 48% to Hinson’s 45%, with 4% undecided.
| Response | Share |
|---|---|
| Josh Turek, the Democrat | 48% |
| Ashley Hinson, the Republican | 45% |
| Another party’s candidate | 2% |
| Undecided | 4% |
| Vol: No response | 1% |
Iowa likely voters; Marist turnout-probability weighting of registered voters · Fieldwork 2026-10-08–2026-10-11. Bars use a 0–100% scale. Less-than results retain the source threshold and have no exact-length bar.
What the result tells us
The three-point gap does not establish a clear leader. Marist reports a ±6.6-point margin of error for likely-voter percentages. Uncertainty about the difference between candidates is a separate calculation. This is one survey, not an average or a forecast.
Survey details and sources
Marist interviewed 1,100 registered voters 2026-10-08 through 2026-10-11, using live telephone, text and online methods. The charts use likely-voter weighting; a separate likely-voter question sample is not reported. The published margin of error for likely-voter shares is ±6.6 percentage points. Released 2026-10-15.
Source: Marist Poll. Caldwell Research analysis and presentation. Rounded percentages and less-than bounds are retained.
Original release · Questionnaire and methodology · Survey record